- Article
- Global Research
- General Research Insights
- Future transport
Future Transport
Seven takeaways from our industry event
HSBC hosted the Fifth Future Transport Week from 20-24 January 2025. We held 12 expert and company panels over five days, bringing together insights from consultants, analysts, and firms across the transport supply chain. So, what were the key takeaways?
1. The future is still electric…
The transport sector is the second-largest contributor to global CO2 emissions, making decarbonisation a key focus of future development. When it comes to passenger cars, electric batteries remain the leading technology to help lower emissions. Sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) far outpace those of hydrogen combustion engines globally, though we continue to see a compelling use case for hydrogen in commercial vehicles such as delivery vans and taxis.
2. ….but might not arrive as quickly as once expected…
While we believe the future of BEVs is intact, the pace of adoption has slowed. China continues to dominate in terms of sales, but markets such as Germany have seen BEV figures slide. Arguably, we and others expected too much too soon. What needs to happen to make mainstream adoption a reality in markets outside China?
2025 could be a year when regulators’ resolve is tested
3. ….and affordability is the key issue
Our conclusion is that cost is the key factor. To this end, manufacturers are focused on making BEVs more affordable. In Europe, for example, many are bringing smaller and lower-cost models to market; and globally, suppliers are also constantly examining new technological solutions to reduce the cost of batteries. Alongside cost, government policy could affect future take-up. 2025 could be a year when regulators’ resolve is tested, with some attendees at our event questioning whether new rules, such as the EU’s ban on internal combustion engines due to start in 2035, could be modified.
4. Self-driving technology is coming closer…
Numerous new car models now include some level of autonomous function as standard. These include forms of cruise control, where the car automatically maintains a steady pace at a safe distance from other vehicles, though the human driver remains in overall control. Some city authorities, including China’s capital Beijing, have consulted on rules to facilitate the commercialisation of largely autonomous “robotaxi” services, where the human passenger sits back. There is no doubt that self-driving technology is on the rise, but we think it will still be some time before robotaxis and fully autonomous vehicles become a reality outside some very specific geographic perimeters.
5. …but the “global car” is getting further away
Recent years have seen new tariffs applied to vehicles, with the possibility of more to come. Because of this, and because of significant regulatory differences between different markets, as well as varied consumer tastes, the general view at our event was that we will continue to see a regionalised and polarised global auto market. The “global car” seems further away.
IMO’s target to achieve net zero by 2050 requires that ships powered with alternative fuel come into operation meaningfully before the end of this decade.
6. Shipping and aviation aim to become greener…
Alternative fuels and electrification of fleets are among the options as aviation and shipping look to reduce their environmental impact. Indeed, the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) target to achieve net zero by 2050 requires that ships powered with alternative fuel come into operation meaningfully before the end of this decade. Alternative fuels are currently more expensive than conventional ones, however, and equipping ships to be able to use them comes at a high cost.
7. …and stable regulation is critical
Indeed, the transport sector as a whole faces great change, which requires substantial investment. Future transport has the potential to be more sustainable and safer than ever – but the best way for the industry to achieve the transition that stakeholders want to see is by garnering economies of scale. Stable regulation and investing in long-term change are critical.
Would you like to know more? Click here* to read the full note. You must be a client of HSBC Global Research to access this link.
To find out more about HSBC Global Research, including how to subscribe, please email us at AskResearch@hsbc.com
* Please note that by clicking on this link you are leaving the HSBC Global Banking & Markets Website, therefore please be aware that the external site policies will differ from our website terms and conditions and privacy policy. The next site will open in a new browser window or tab.
The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Michael Tyndall, CFA, Pushkar Tendolkar, Yuqian Ding, Edoardo Spina, CFA, Parash Jain, Will Cho, Jonathan Day and Camila Sarmiento
This document has been issued by the Research Department of HSBC.
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis or act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities/instruments mentioned in this report.
Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues.
Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance.
For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.
Additional disclosures
- This report is dated as at 30 January 2025.
- All market data included in this report are dated as at close 28 January 2025, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report.
- HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
- You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument or of an investment fund.
The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Michael Tyndall, CFA, Pushkar Tendolkar, Yuqian Ding, Edoardo Spina, CFA, Parash Jain, Will Cho, Jonathan Day and Camila Sarmiento
This document has been issued by the Research Department of HSBC.
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis or act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities/instruments mentioned in this report.
Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues.
Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance.
For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.
Additional disclosures
- This report is dated as at 30 January 2025.
- All market data included in this report are dated as at close 28 January 2025, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report.
- HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
- You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument or of an investment fund.
